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Iran economic growth to be positive in 2020

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Irans economic growth will be positive as of next year after elapsing two tough economic years.

(SHADA: TEHRAN) -- In its latest report of World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) of the Islamic Republic of Iran at -6 percent in 2019.

According to the IMF, Iran's economic growth rate was -3.9% last year, which is expected to hit a negative 6% this year due to the unilateral US sanctions.

The report says Iran's economy will spend its worst year after 2012. In 2012, Iran, which had the first year of its oil embargo, experienced a negative economic growth of 7.7 percent.

However, the IMF predicted that Iran's economy will experience a 0.2 percent growth by 2020. Discharge of impact of sanctions will play a leading role in positivity of Iran's economic growth in coming year, so that such positive economic growth of the country will continue at least by 2024.

The IMF also updated other information and statistics related to the Iranian economy in the World Economic Outlook database:

Iran's share of the world economy

In 2019, Iran's share of world GDP (based on purchasing power) will reach 1.08 percent, while in 2017 and 2018 it was 1.28 and 1.19 percent, respectively. Reducing Iran's share of world gross output reflects the weaker performance of the Iranian economy compared to the global average.


According to the IMF estimates, the ratio of investment to GDP in 2019 will be about 39 percent (38.97). This figure was 35.7 and 38.3 in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Gross National Savings

The International Monetary Fund estimates the ratio of Gross Domestic Product to Gross Domestic Saving to be around 38.6% for 2019, which is a relatively significant decline compared to last year's figure of 42.6%.


Iran's inflation rate, which stood at 9.6% in 2017, reached 31.2% in 2018 and the IMF predicted that Iran's inflation rate would increase to 37.2% this year, and in the coming years, inflation will be a downward trend.

Import of goods and services

The volume of imports of goods and services to Iran, which declined by 9.14 percent in 2018 compared to the previous year, is expected to decrease by 10.5 percent year-on-year, according to the IMF forecasts.

Export of goods and services

Iran's export slowdown was even more than its slowdown in imports. The IMF predicts that exports of goods and services would decrease by 22.6 percent year-on-year. In 2017, Iran's exports dropped 14.4 percent year-on-year.


The unemployment rate in Iran, which stood at 11.8% in 2017, rose to 13.9 in 2018 and is expected to reach 15.4% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Government revenues and expenditures

The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Iranian government's public revenue for 2019 would be 13.4 percent of GDP, which shows a significant decline compared to last years (17.5 percent in 2017 and 14.2 percent in 2018).

On the other hand, the IMF expects the government's general spending to be 17.4% of GDP this year. This figure was 19.35 and 18.04 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively.